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电力电子工业用蜡Waxes for Power Electronics Industry

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药物和化妆品用蜡Waxes for Pharmaceutical And Cosmetics

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皮革工业用蜡
Waxes for Leather Industry

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陶瓷工业用蜡
Waxes for Ceramic Industry

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纺织工业用蜡
Waxes for Textile Industry

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粘合密封用蜡Waxes for Adhesive And Sealant

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家禽拔毛蜡
Waxes for Poultry process

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造纸及包装工业用蜡
Waxes for Paper- Making and Packaging Industry

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木材加工用蜡
Waxes for Timber Process

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蜡烛工业用蜡
Waxes for Candle Industry

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体育用品用蜡
Waxes for Sports

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其他特种蜡
Other Special Waxes

蜡行业全球性的机遇和挑战
“GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS IN THE WAX BUSINESS”-REVIEW OF PAPER BY GEETA AGASHE OF KLINE & CO. GIVEN AT THE NPRA LUBE AND WAX MEETING

2008-03-08

    “全球性的机遇和挑战”是Kline & Co.公司对未来全球蜡行业发展较广泛的研究后做出的总结。在地缘上,该研究覆盖了全球主要的蜡消费市场以及各种蜡分类包括矿物蜡(石蜡,蒙旦蜡,地蜡),合成蜡(费托蜡,聚乙烯蜡,α石蜡,聚丙烯蜡),动物蜡(蜂蜡,动物脂,羊毛脂)和植物蜡(豆蜡,棕榈蜡,小烛树蜡,西蒙德木蜡等)研究报告还包括对全球主要的石油脱油厂商和费托蜡供应商的深入分析。
    每个炼油厂已经报告了蜡产量,无论蜡是否已经销售给终端客户、经销商,或者销售给脱油厂做深加工。由于特定区域脱油厂对粗蜡的大量需求,可供给的优质的全精炼石蜡,疏松石蜡/半精炼石蜡以及粗蜡减少,因此脱油厂生产的全精炼石蜡也计入各地区的石蜡总供给。当粗蜡从一个地区转移到另外一个地区的脱油厂时,蜡供给要在地区间进行调整。
    论文显示2006年估计全球蜡市场容量为99亿磅,金额超过50亿美元。全球矿物蜡,特别是石蜡形成了大量的供给。最近石蜡的供应的减少给新的蜡品种比如加氢豆蜡,加氢棕榈蜡提供了市场。据估计这些蜡的市场增长速度最快。
    在区域范围内,亚洲主导了蜡的全球供给,北美主导了蜡的全球需求。亚洲占到全球42%的蜡供给量,北美占到供给量的25%,西欧占到13%。全球蜡需求的35%被北美支配。,亚洲23%,西欧20%。
    蜡的终端用途,蜡烛产业消耗掉了近50%的蜡,其次是胶板涂层工业消耗掉了17%,包装业消耗掉12%,流变和表面处理工业消耗了11%。全球44家公司在80家炼油厂生产石蜡,还有其他6家公司在7家特种脱油厂加工石蜡。市场上前十大蜡供应商包括中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC),埃克森美孚石油(EXXONMOBIL),中国石化(SINOPEC),壳牌石油(Shell),伊朗国家石油公司(NIOC), 委内瑞拉国际石油公司(PDVSA,包括Citgo公司),卢克石油公司(Lukoil俄国),德国特种化学品集团(H & R Wasag),科莱美特种化学品(Calumet), 巴西石油公司(Petrobras)。
    2006年亚洲对国际市场的蜡供给量为22.3亿磅蜡,非洲和中东向北美和西欧的供给量不足。
    报告估计,中国的石蜡供给将会增长,但是较之前的增长速度减缓。中国的一两家炼油厂还将在2007至2011年间专向燃料生产,但是中国的石蜡产出仍然还会保持净增长,中国各地区的工厂在职能分解后,通过管理恢复,产量缓慢爬升,石蜡利用率提高,成本降低,石蜡产量有小幅的增长。加氢技术为北美市场提供了更稳定的高熔点植物蜡供给。但是,新的Ⅱ类/Ⅲ类/费托合成润滑油工厂的启动将导致Ⅰ类润滑油工厂的关闭,西欧和北美的蜡供给被侵蚀。
    此外,该报告预测蜡烛行业不会再有明显的市场增长,只会在特种蜡烛市场上有小幅的增长。发展中国家和地区的装饰性蜡烛仍会有小幅的增长,不过这种小幅增长会被彩灯的市场下降所抵消。
    在价格方面,报告预测,由于中国有大量的石蜡出口,中国将引导全球石蜡市场价格。同时原油价格和原材料价格上涨交汇将进一步促进石蜡产品涨价。这一趋势为其他蜡品种出让了市场,增加了现有供应商的竞争压力。新的Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类润滑油项目的启动将促使另一批Ⅰ类润滑油工厂关闭。整体来说,该报告预测中国的石蜡供应趋于稳定,全球其他地区石蜡生产也由于生产能力的提高和蜡生产的恢复,产量维持稳定。加氢植物蜡技术的提高将会带来更多的市场。
    “Global Opportunities and Threats to the Wax Business” is a summary a more comprehensive study of the future for the global wax business done by Kline & Co. Geographically, the study includes a broad overview of all major regional markets as well as a breakdown all types of wax including mineral waxes(petroleum waxes, montan, ozocerite),synthetic waxes(Fischer-Tropsch, Polyethylene, α-olefin, polypropylene), animal waxes(beeswax, tallow, lanolin) and vegetable waxes(soy, palm, carnauba, candelilla, jojoba, etc). The study also contains an in-depth profile of leading global petroleum de-oiler and F-T wax suppliers.
    Wax output is reported for each refinery regardless of whether the wax was sold to and end user, broker, or de-oiler for further processing. Developed FRP and slack/semi-refined waxes and regions slack wax supply reduced by the amount of slack required as feed to the de-oilers in that region. FRP produced by the de-oilers was then added to the regions total wax supply total. Adjustments were made between regions when slack waxes and moved from one region to support de-oiling another region.
    The study reports that the global wax market is estimated at 9.9 billion pounds valued at over $5 billion in 2006. Globally mineral wax, particularly petroleum waxes forms the bulk of total supply. The recent decline in petroleum wax supply has created openings for new types of waxes such as hydrogenated soy and palm wax. It is suggested that these waxes represent the fastest growing market for wax.
    Regionally, Asia dominates global supply while North America dominates global wax demand. Asia accounts for 42 percent of global supply, North America 25 percent and Western Europe 13 percent. Global wax demand is dominated by North America at 35 percent, Asia, 23 percent and Western Europe 20 percent.
    By end uses, candles represent slightly less than 50 percent of global wax consumption, followed by board sizing at 17 percent, packaging at 12 percent and rheology and surface applications 11 percent. Globally, 44 companies produce petroleum wax at 80 refineries around the world and another 6 companies produce petroleum wax at 7 specialty de-oiling refineries. The top ten global wax suppliers to the market are CNPC, ExxonMobil, Sinopec, Shell, NIOC, PDVSA (+Citgo), Lukoil, H&R Wasag, Calumet, and Petrobras.
    A total of 2,230 million pounds of waxes were supplied from Asia, Africa and the Middle East to supply wax shortfalls in North America and W Europe in 2006.
    The report forecasts that petroleum wax supplies from China will grow, but at a slower rate than in the recent past. One or two Chinese refineries will convert to fuels only sites between 2007 and 2011, but there is still a net rise in Chinese wax output. Petroleum wax supplies from all regions will see modest growth from plants currently operating via capacity creep, improved utilization and low cost recovery of petroleum wax from cracking. Hydrogenation technology brings more stable vegetable waxes with higher melting points to market primarily in North America. Negatively, new Group II/III/GTL lubricant plant startups will lead to Group I plant shutdowns and wax supply erosion in Western Europe and North America.
    In addition, the report forecasts that candles will no longer represent a significant growth market, with only slight growth in specialty candles. There will be moderate growth in developing regions with slight growth in decorative candles. These gains will be offset by declines for illumination.
    With regard to pricing, the report forecasts that China will guide global wax market prices primarily due to huge amount of its wax exports. Also soaring crude and raw material prices will converge, bringing high petroleum wax prices. This will provide and opening for market penetration from other wax types, resulting in high competitive pressure on existing suppliers. Also new Group II and III startups will bring additional Group I shutdowns. Overall, the report forecasts that there will be stability in Chinese petroleum wax supplies, combined with improved capacity utilization and wax recovery in other regions of the world. Hydrogenated vegetable wax technology improvements will bring open more markets for these waxes.

 

 
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