10 多年以来，美国及全球的石油蜡工业一直在受许多负面趋势的影响，导致许多制造商产蜡量的下降。艾米﹒克拉克顿（ Amy Claxton ）女士在前不久的休斯顿 NPRA 年会中提交了《关于主要精炼趋势的回顾以及其给以后蜡供应带来的影响》的论文。
目前全球有 654 家原油精炼商，其中 75% 是只精炼燃料类产品的，只有 150 家（大约 25% ）是也生产润滑类产品（ LBS ）。在这些也作润滑类产品（ LBS ）的精炼商中，有 80 家同时生产蜡产品，其中有 30 家生产全精炼石蜡（ FRP ）。
全球的原油加工能力大约为 8500 万桶 / 天，其中 99% 是用在燃料方面。润滑类产品的加工能力估计只占 1% ，或者说是 85 万桶 / 天。
亚洲地区的蜡生产能力占全球的 35% ，其中中国是全球最大的生产国，约占全球总生产能力的 25% ；北美占全球总能力的 30% ，位据第二；美国是全球第二大生产国，占全球总能力的 21% 。其次是西欧地区，占全球总能力的 20% ；东欧地区占全球总能力的 11% ；再其次为拉丁美洲及世界其它地区。
克拉克顿（ Claxton ）女士分析了三大石油加工的发展趋势：
1 ，中国的增长
关于中国的增长，克拉克顿（ Claxton ）女士报道说中国政府计划通过建立沿海精炼中心，以精炼含硫原油，来满足燃料增长的需要，因为中国本土高含蜡石油在慢慢减少。以后所有石油消费的增长都将是从低含蜡量的进口原油来满足。
总之，在中国，这意味着以后到炼油厂手里的将是含蜡量更低的原油。上海高桥和茂名的炼油厂都已经在加工含蜡量很低的原油了。这两个地方每年的蜡精炼总能力是27.013万吨。另外，大连将成为只精练燃料油的加工中心。大连每年的蜡精炼能力估计在22.70万吨。正如所言，大约40%的中国蜡生产能力就能影响今后几年的全球石蜡供应。另外中国政府根据原油成本制定的产品价格将影响中国产的蜡的供应。
2 ，国际润滑油标准委员会（ ILSAC ）的 GF-5 发动机油的进展
开发 GF-5 发动机油计划在 2010 年完成，这将导致很多 I 型工厂的关门，并将降低石蜡的生产能力。论文中介绍：北美生产 I 型润滑产品的工厂数量已经从 1985 年的 30 家减少到 1990 年的 23 家、 1995 年的 20 家、 2000 年的 15 家，以及 2005 年的 13 家，并且预测到 2010 年将会减少到 10 家。全炼蜡厂家也将相应地从 2005 年的 7 家减少到 2010 年的 4 家。
3 ， GTL 合成技术的发展
第三个趋势就是，气液转换技术 (GTL) 对润滑类产品（ LBS ）供应的影响。目前，三家大的能生产优质润滑产品的 GTL 工厂将在 2012 年开始生产。到 2010 年， GTL 工厂生产润滑类产品（ LBS ）的能力为 3.5 万桶 / 天，到 2012 年将增长到 7 万桶 / 天。到那时候，预计润滑类产品（ LBS ）的供应为 81 万桶 / 天，而需求预计为 75 万桶 / 天，超额数量为 6 万桶 / 天。润滑类产品（ LBS ）的供过于求，将导致 I 型润滑油生产工厂的关闭，这将进一步影响蜡的供应。
For more than a decade, the petroleum wax industry in the U.S. , as well as globally, has been subject to a number of negative trends that have led to a decline in the number of refineries making wax. The paper presented by Ms.Amy Claxton P.E. at the recent “International Lubricants and Waxes Meeting” in Houston is a review of key refining trends that will have an impact on future wax supply.
Presently there are 654 crude oil refineries of these 75 percent are fuels only refineries and 150, or 25 percent, also make lubricant base stocks (LBS). Of the refineries that make LBS, 80 also make wax while 30 of these refineries also make fully refined paraffin waxes(FRP).
Worldwide crude refining capacity is about 85 MBD of which 99 percent is for fuels. Lubricant basestock capacity is estimated at 1 percent of refining capacity, or 850000BD. Wax capacity is estimated at 0.1 percent of refinery capacity, or about 85,000 BD, slightly more than 10.0 billion pounds per year.
The Far East has an estimated 35 percent of global wax capacity with China , the world's largest producer having 25 percent of global capacity. North American ranks second with 30 percent of global capacity and the U.S. is the second largest producer with 21 percent of global capacity. They are followed by Western Europe with 20 percent of global capacity. Eastern Europe with 11 percent and the balance in Latin America and other areas of the world.
Ms. Claxon identified three refining trends that the petroleum wax industry needs to monitor in order to be prepared for the future. These are:
·Growth in China .
·ILSAC GF-5 Progress.
·GTL Refinery Progress.
With regard to growth in China , Ms. Claxton reports that the Chinese government plans to meet growing fuel demands by building coastal refining hubs to run high sulfur, waterborne crude. This has become necessary because indigenous waxy Chinese crude fields are in slow decline. All future increase in crude consumption will therefore be from low wax containing imported crudes.
Overall this means that crude runs to refineries in China are trending lower in wax content, and ultimately in wax yields. The Gaoqiao ( Shanghai ) and Maoming refineries are already running much lower waxy crudes. Combined these two refineries have capacity for 595 million pounds per year of wax. Additionally. Dalian is slated to become a “fuels only” refining hub. Dalian wax capacity is estimated at 500 million pounds per year. As indicated, about 40 percent of Chinese wax production capacity could be impacted in coming years. Another factor that could impact Chinese wax supply at times is that refinery crude runs are sometimes curtailed because of negative margins caused by artificial product prices set by the Chinese government in relation to crude costs.
Progress in developing GF-5 engine oil specifications, which is scheduled for completion by 2010, could trigger more Group 1 plant shut downs, resulting in the loss of paraffin wax production capacity. The paper indicates that the number of Group 1 lube plants in North America has declined from 30 in 1985, to 23 in 1990, 20 in 1995, 15 in 2000, and 13 in 2005. It is projected that the number will decline to 10 by 2010 with a corresponding reduction in the number of FRP plants from 7 in 2005 to 4 in 2010.
Trend No.3 is the expected impact on LBS supply from the progress in Gas-To-Liquids(GTL)refining. Currently, three large GTL plants with capacity to produce high quality lube basestocks are scheduled to be on-line by 2012. By 2010,GTL plants will be capable of producing 35 KBD of LBS and by 2012 this will increase to 70 KBD. At that time, supply of LBS is projected at 810 KBD white demand is forecast to be 750 KBD. An excess of 60 KBD. The oversupply of LBS is likely to result in additional Group 1 plant shutdowns, further impacting on wax supply.
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