在最近的美洲基础油及润滑产品大会上，麦能源公司（ My Energy ）的艾米 · 克拉克顿（ Amy Claxton ）和克莱恩公司 (Kline and Co.) 的威廉姆 (William Downey) 一起，报道了气液转换项目（ GTL Base Stock ）的概况、以及它们对基础油供应的潜在影响。本报告的重点是建设中的气液转换（ GTL ）工程的时间不确定，特别是在卡塔尔的工程。因为有这些不确定因素，所以建议基础油购买者或消费者必须和至少两家工厂保持关系，以适应这些可能发生的变化、或工程的延期。
事实上，市场供应已经受到这些不确定因素的影响了，在 2000 年 —2004 年，有六家气液转换（ GTL ）工程宣布被卡塔尔石油公司收购。根据对该工程的最终调查，很显然，原计划中的工程将消耗该国天然气的三分之二。结果，卡塔尔政府推迟了其中的三个工程，只允许沙索（ Sasol Oryx ）、壳牌（ Shell Pearl ）和爱克森莫比尔（ Exxon-Mobile ）等三家公司继续进行。这三家公司生产燃料、每天生产基础油的能力大约为 80000 桶。
这些工程不确定的其它因素在增多，例如燃气价格及建设成本，这些都为所有 GTL 工程带来了压力。天然气货币化的其它选择，例如液化天然气 LNG （ Liquefied Natural Gas) 、及产品价格与原油价格挂钩等，和原油有关的高燃气价格使 GTL 产品的吸引力减少了。由于正处于最后的详细调查阶段，一些原计划 2009 或 2011 年成型的 GTL 工程，很可能要延迟到 2015 年了。
这些延迟会影响石油蜡生产商和消费者，因为 I 型基础油工厂也生产蜡，并且已经有 20 多年的历史了。保守地估计，仅仅一家工厂的维护费用大约在 6000~8000 万美元 / 年之间，这些精炼蜡的生产商因为 GTL 工程的延迟，无法就工厂的关闭或升级做出选择。
GTL Base Oil In The Middle East
At the recent ICIS Pan-American Base Oils and Lubricants Conference, Amy Claxton of My Energy, and William Downey of Kline and Co. gave a joint presentation on the outlook for GTL base stocks and their impact on potential supply. The emphasis of the presentations were the uncertainties in timing of the GTL projects that are under construction or consideration fuels and lubricants, especially in Qatar . Because of the uncertainties, it was suggested that buyers and consumers of the base oils have to be prepared with at least two business plans to handle possible changes or delays in the projects.
As an indication of the uncertainties that have already been encountered, it was noted that between 2000 and 2004, six GTL joint projects were announced with Qatar Petroleum. Upon close examination of the projects it because apparent that the proposed projects would consume two-thirds of the country's output of natural gas. As a result, Qatar deferred three of these projects, leaving just Sasol Oryx, Shell Pearl and Exxon-Mobile as active projects. The three would produce fuels and approximately 80000b/d of the base oils.
Other factors contributing to the project uncertainties are escalation in gas prices and construction costs, which have put pressure on all GTL projects. With alternate options to monetize natural gas such as LNG, and with product prices linked to crude prices, high gas prices relative to crude have made GTL products less attractive. As GTL projects come under closer scrutiny, some projects scheduled to come on stream by 2009 or 2011 could very likely be delayed as much into as far as into 2015.
As far as petroleum wax producers and consumers are concerned, such delay could impact on refinery with Group I base oil plants which also produce wax and are more than 20 years old. Downing estimates that five years of maintenance of just one of these plants might be between $60 and $80 million over the five years, and some refinery might be faced with the choice between shutting down or upgrading.
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